Here’s the long term view of the U. S. stock market as shown on a monthly bars chart of the Spiders, ticker SPY, the etf that tracks the S&P 500.

The strong retracement, the uptrend coming up from the low of March of this year, has a well fit TopFinder on it which is now 80% done. The dotted vertical line is placed horizontally at the position of 100% completion of the TopFinder, the projected location of the end of this uptrend. The red resistance curve was chosen because it already captured the pull-up in price in May of ‘08, so it’s a very significant curve. It’s now horizontal at a price of 115. And if you extrapolate the current price trend, it looks like it will also be at about 115 when it hits the dotted vertical line.

So, we’re near the end of this robust retracement from the low of the crash. This monthly bars view shows there’s room for one or two more bars (months) before the end. Now, looking at my previous blog post, the intermediate timeframe, it’s projecting an end to that uptrend in about the same time at about the same price target. This is a powerful confluence of projections, telling us there’s a very significant top to the market, that’ll be here in a month or two.

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