This post updates my post here of Oct. 24th, the monthly bars chart of SPY, the etf tracking the S&P 500. But this time, instead of plotting SPY, I’m plotting the S&P 500 index itself, with price and volume data from Yahoo Finance. The previous SPY chart went back to times when the trading volume in the SPY was low and accelerating, behaving rather differently from the trading volume of the underlying index, the S&P 500. So, for long term charts, it is better to use the index itself.

.

The TopFinder to the market’s retracement, light green curve, is now 91% complete. The dotted red vertical line marks the horizontal location of 100% completion (as measured at the center of the price bars).

The two green curves that originate in the left half of this chart are two primary support curves launched from major pullbacks during the huge market uptrend that went from 2003 through 2007. Each of these has supported a subsequent price pullback, so these two curves are very significant. Price broke below these curves during the crash and now price is approaching them, so now they are resistance curves, which have coalesced into a level of about 1115. Price is now very close to this level.

It’s typical that when price gets to within the last 10% of a TopFinder’s duration, volatility can increase, making for a rather sloppy ending to the accelerated trend. The long term S&P 500 is now in that range. During this month of November, we should expect to see the TopFinder end, and price to respond by behaving distinctly differently than it has since March of this year.

Tweet This Post