This post updates my Nov. 2nd post, which you should read for a description of the items being displayed in today’s chart, which is updated through the end of last week.

I’m adding a couple of things to the chart this time.  First, there’s one more well calibrated green support curve from the previous uptrend.  And second, there are the Fibonacci retracement levels defined by the 2007 high and the March 2009 low.

The current accelerated uptrend, as traced by its TopFinder, is now about 94% complete, meaning it’s within the region of volatility that often accompanies the end of a TopFinder.  The theoretical end would be when the center of  this month’s price bar reaches the dotted vertical red line, which it is very likely to do well before this month is over.  So, for all intents and purposes, this long term uptrend is essentially over.

Apart from TopFinder theory, we see the massive resistance arrayed just above last month’s high – those three green curves all clustering around the 50% Fib retracement level, around 1125.  This adds credence to the conclusion that this uptrend is just about done.

What’s next?  When a TopFinder ends, we expect price to respond by testing the nearest support level, and that’s shown by the purple support curve launched from the minor low in July.  On the upside, we expect price to test the aforementioned massive resistance just above where it is now.  After consolidating between these support and resistance levels for awhile, the market will decide what it wants to do next.

So, right now we’re seeing an powerful confluence on three timeframes:  Short term (daily bars) an unaccelerated uptrend continues but weakens, Intermediate term (weekly bars) the accelerated uptrend has ended, and long term (monthly bars, this chart) the accelerated uptrend is essentially over.  Having such a simultaneous occurrence on three timeframes, along with hitting massive upside resistance, is a powerful indication that the market is now at major inflection point.

As always, my disclaimer applies here; see it under this blog tab.

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