The long term monthly bars chart in my Nov. 9th post shows a TopFinder (TF) fitted to an uptrend that has only nine price bars in it.  The software that generated this, StockShare V2, when displaying EquiVolume or CandleVolume charts, references all indicators to the center of each price bar.  Also, the TF plug-in only allows increments in the duration, D, in amounts equal to the volume of each bar that the user drags the mouse over while adjusting the curve.  The combination of these two things means that one may not be able to accurately fit a TF when there are only a small number of price bars, as in the Nov. 9th chart.  The chart shown here in today’s post corrects both of those problems, and results in a significantly different projection to the end of this uptrend.

This chart, updated through Nov. 11th, is generated in MetaStock, which references everything to the right side of each price bar when in EquiVolume or CandleVolume display, which properly takes into account the width of each bar.  More importantly, the TopFinder/BottomFinder (TB-F) plug-in we’ve created for MetaStock allows the user to input any value for D.  So, in this chart, I’ve chosen EquiVolume display instead of CandleVolume so that the lower right corner of each bar is clearly visible.  Then, I carefully adjusted D in the TF so that the curve exactly matches the lower right corner of the July 2009 price bar; and I didn’t do this just visually, I did it so that the value of the TF curve at that month is the value of the low of that month to four significant figures.  You can see the TF curve here in purple.

Doing this, I found that the TF is actually only 68% complete, not 94% as shown in my Nov. 9th post.  On this chart here, I’ve positioned the dotted vertical purple line at the correct place horizontally where the TF will be complete.  Everything else in this chart is the same as in the Nov. 9th chart, q.v. for descriptions.

The conclusion to draw from this corrected chart is that we’re not close to the end of this TF.  It looks like we could easily have one or two more monthly bars before getting there, which puts the end into December, or maybe even January; assuming price does not break down through the TF curve before it ends.

As for price projections, we still see massive overhead resistance with those three green curves and the 50% Fib retracement level.  Price could honor those resistances and just sort of wallow around until the TF ends, or price could keep right on going up through those levels.  If it does go up, the straight line projection would put it about at the red resistance curve at about 1150 when the TF ends.  I’ll update this weekly.

My disclaimer, which appears under this blog tab, applies here, especially the part which says, “I can be wrong”!

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