Archive for March, 2010

This is an update of my Mar. 22nd post here.

The uptrend that started Feb. 5th is continuing, with its TopFinder now 63.2% complete.  The dashed vertical line marks the horizontal location of the expected end of the TopFinder.  The data shown here are as of the close of Friday, Mar. 26th.

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This is the update to my blog post here of March 6th, q.v.

We’re in a robust uptrend that started Feb. 5th, and which, according to the well fit TopFinder, is about 63% complete, with the projected horizontal location of its completion at the dashed vertical line.

Comparing to my immediate previous post here, remember that this chart is of the daily bars, so the uptrend, the TopFinder and the hierarchy of S curves all refer to this uptrend that started Feb. 5th, and are not related to the uptrend, TopFinder and S hierarchy shown in the monthly bars chart of the previous post.

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This is the update to my blog post here of Feb. 8th, q.v.

As you can see in this chart, price has definitively broken out above R1.  The TopFinder curve that I called TF2 in the Feb. 8th post is now virtually complete, so I’ve shown it here as a dotted curve.  With the new breakout, it makes sense to fit a new TopFinder, called TF3, to the February low, and to launch S3 from there, the next curve in the hierarchy of support curves following this uptrend. TF3 is about 2/3rds complete at this point, with the projected horizontal location of its end at the dashed vertical line.

With this breakout and new TopFinder, it’s obvious that the uptrend that started in March of 2009 is still very much alive and well, with a lot further to go.

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This is an update of my Jan. 30th post, with emphasis on the upper pane of the chart.  See that post for explanations of the indicators being shown here.  (BTW, the correct abbreviation for that purple indicator is MVPT, for Modified Volume Price Trend, not MPVT.)

Even as the short and intermediate term trends of the S&P 500 are strongly up (see my previous two posts of today), distribution is continuing, strongly, out of the U. S. stock market.  The average volume on up days, green curve, has been declining steadily since early February, while the average volume on down days, red curve, holds steady far above it.  This says that the “smart money” are continuing to bail out of the market, which usually foretells a new downtrend.  We just don’t know when.

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This is my monthly update of the S&P 500 intermediate term, weekly bars.  See my post of February 7th.

The strong action of the past few weeks has broken above close-in resistance (dotted red curve), and now makes it clear that we are still in the uptrend that started last March.  The low of early February is a much more significant one than the early November low, and the Feb. low looks very much like the low of last July.  Therefore, it makes sense to launch S3 from this Feb. low.

Looking ahead, the big test will be whether it breaks above the level of the primary R1 curve from the monthly bars chart.  If it resists and turns down from there, that likely would be the end of this long uptrend since it has already resisted there before.  But, if it breaks above that level, then it’d be very likely that price would move much higher, probably extending to a four-fold hierarchy of support curves.

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This is my weekly update of the short term (daily bars) status of the S&P 500.

It’s now in a strong uptrend.  This past week, it broke above R1 and is surging strongly.  Now we can see that this is part of an uptrend that started in early February.  This is being tracked by a two-fold hierarchy of support curves, the light green ones.

To watch for this coming week – how it behaves at the resistance level of the January highs.

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This is an update of my Feb. 20th blog post.

After briefly perforating the R1 curve a week ago, the S&P 500 slipped back and is hovering indecisively just under that curve.  So, it’s not in any trend at this time.

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