Archive for April, 2010

This is the update to my March 22nd post.

On this chart, I have made an adjustment to the curve on the previous post’s chart called “Old R1″.  I moved its starting point back slightly in order that the curve would exactly capture the high in early 2004 that’s marked by the red down arrow.  This adjustment procedure is what I call Calibrating A Curve, and I’ll have a whole chapter on this in our upcoming book.  Briefly, what it means is that a curve that’s so calibrated has great significance going forward.  So, looking at the latest bar on this chart, the one for this month, the fact that this bar has broken out above this calibrated curve is very significant, even though the extent of the breakout is only modest.  It tells us that the long term uptrend that started in March of ‘09 continues to have robust strength, further suggesting the likelihood that this trend will proceed to fulfill the currently running TopFinder.

That TopFinder is currently 71.3% complete in terms of cumulative volume, and is projected to end at the horizontal location of the dashed vertical line.  If average monthly trading volume continues as it has been for the last half year or so, then it looks like it will take five or six more months to get to the end.

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This is the update of my April 17th post.

Last week I noted that the uptrend that started in early February had ended.  During this past week, there was a consolidation, followed yesterday by a breakout to the upside.  As you can see in this chart, this breakout is modest, and one would usually want to see some follow-through before declaring a new uptrend.  But I have two reasons for believing that this really is a new uptrend.  One is that other indices, such as the Valueline Arithmetic, are showing considerable follow-through.  The second is that, as I’ll show in my next post, the monthly bars chart just broke out above significant resistance.

In this chart here, the previous hierarchy of Midas Support curves, S1 through S4, is now de-emphasized since that old trend is over, and I’m showing the beginning of the new S1 for the new trend.

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This is an update of my blog post of April 10th.

The short term uptrend that started in early February has ended.  Yesterday’s high volume move on the downside ended the TopFinder.  Also, notice that the price candles of the last three days form the Evening Star, which is a very significant candle reversal pattern.  Price came down and pierced through S4, but then closed just above it.  If in subsequent days price closes below S4, then we will have started a new short term downtrend.

I’ve added support curve S3A since it’s a bit ambiguous as to where S3 should be launched.  We may see significant support during a down move at either S3 or S3A.

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This is an update to my post of last week April 5th.  Last week I showed that the TopFinder had only a few days to go.  And indeed, it ended at the dashed vertical line shown then and in the same place on the chart here in this post.  The expectation upon the ending of a TopFinder is a consolidation, but what we got was only the very briefest consolidation, followed on Friday by a breakout to the upside.  So, this week, I have re-fit the TopFinder to fit last Thursday’s pullback, at the upper purple arrow.  In doing so, I see that it also nicely fits the major low in late February, at the lower purple arrow.  So, this fitting probably has more significance.  This TopFinder is 88.9% complete, with an expected 5 to 7 days to run, projected to end at the horizontal location of the dotted vertical line.

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This is the update of my March 29th post. This shows data as of the close of April 2nd.

The short term uptrend that started Feb. 5th is now within a few days of its end.  The TopFinder is 92% done, and will expire when the price bars get to the dashed vertical line on this chart.  Remember, once it does get there, that does not necessarily mean that a new downtrend will start.  But at the very least, there will be a pause, a short consolidation, before the market decides where to go next.

Let me remind everyone of the fractal nature of the markets.  This TopFinder on this daily bars chart, and its expected end in a few days, is distinctly different from the TopFinder shown on the long term monthly bars chart in my March 22nd post here.  That long term one is two thirds done now, and many months from its end.  When looking across several different timeframes, it’s common to have short term market cycles nested within intermediate term cycles which are then nested within long term cycles.

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