D Hawkins

24
Apr

This is the update to my March 22nd post.

On this chart, I have made an adjustment to the curve on the previous post’s chart called “Old R1″.  I moved its starting point back slightly in order that the curve would exactly capture the high in early 2004 that’s marked by the red down arrow.  This adjustment procedure is what I call Calibrating A Curve, and I’ll have a whole chapter on this in our upcoming book.  Briefly, what it means is that a curve that’s so calibrated has great significance going forward.  So, looking at the latest bar on this chart, the one for this month, the fact that this bar has broken out above this calibrated curve is very significant, even though the extent of the breakout is only modest.  It tells us that the long term uptrend that started in March of ‘09 continues to have robust strength, further suggesting the likelihood that this trend will proceed to fulfill the currently running TopFinder.

That TopFinder is currently 71.3% complete in terms of cumulative volume, and is projected to end at the horizontal location of the dashed vertical line.  If average monthly trading volume continues as it has been for the last half year or so, then it looks like it will take five or six more months to get to the end.

^GSPCmnthlyShow

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