This is the update to my April 24th post.

A lot has happened since the last update of this long term, monthly bars chart.  Last month, price hit both the 61.8% fib retracement level and the highest resistance curve, and also the level of the R1 from the quarterly bars chart (not shown).  And this month, May, price strongly retreated. breaking through S3, the uppermost green curve, which means the old uptrend has ended.  Also, the last three bars on this chart are a Shooting Star candle pattern, indicating the end of the uptrend.

Also, it’s interesting to note the TopFinder curve shown in purple here.  This one is fit to the bar at the purple arrow.  This TofFinder ended at the end of March, just before the top bar here.  We had shown this TopFinder curve several months ago, then later switched to following a longer term one (not shown here) fitted to the April price bar, and that one has not ended.  But, this earlier one has ended, making a good call of the top.

What happens from here?    It’s hard to say with only one bar down from the top.  Price did find support at S2, the second green curve, but the size of the down move this month of May is so large that it’s probably the beginning of a new downtrend.  We can’t say that for sure, though, until another couple of months.

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