Archive for July, 2010

This is the update to my July 24th and June 5th posts, respectively.

The first chart here is of the short term timeframe, on daily bars.  We see the uptrend that started July 1st is continuing along is a straightforward way.  Last Tuesday price hit R1 and turned down, establishing the first higher high of this uptrend.  Last Friday price came down close to S2 and turned up, so this may have established a higher low.

The second chart here is of the accumulation/distribution situation.  For definitions of the indicators and arguments I use here, see the June 5th post and its preceding ones.  The MVPT indicator is more or less tracking price, so its not telling us anything.  But look at the upper pane.  The average volume on down days is still greater than on up days, indicating continuing distribution, but the difference is closing rapidly.  If the curves do cross, putting green above red, that would be the first time that’s happened since last October, and would indicate that accumulation has started, a very bullish indication.  However, the present situation with these two curves is the same as it was in late March, where the difference almost closed, but then red took off again, showing continuing negative pressure.

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This is the update to my July 4th post.

The first chart here is of the intermediate term timeframe, shown on weekly bars.  After bouncing up from Old R4 early this month, price has now broken above the S3/New R2 combo.  So, I’d say that the downtrend that started in April has now at least paused.  The most we can say right now is that it is in a consolidation.  It won’t be a new uptrend unless and until it breaks above New R1.

The second chart here is of the long term, monthly bars.  From a strictly Midas viewpoint, this chart shows a continuing downtrend, since price is breaking supports, S3 and S2, which remaining far below R1.  It’s interesting to note, though, that this month’s bar has bounced up from the 38.2% Fib level, which may indicate some weakening of this downtrend.

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This is the update to my July 19th post.

On the short term, the daily bars chart updated here, we see that yesterday price definitively broke and closed above the weekly R2 resistance.  With this break, it has broken out of the consolidation between the lower two weekly R curve levels.  We can now identify the action since the beginning of July as an uptrend since it has a higher low and will have a higher high, and since we see that price did not break below the New S1 in the hierarchy of Midas support curves that’s tracking this new uptrend.

In the coming weeks, we should watch for how it behaves as it encounters R2 and R1 at 1113 and 1118.5 respectively, or the weekly R2 at 1142.  A turn down from one of them would not negate the new uptrend, rather, it would just establish the higher high.  The real test will come when the pullback gets down to the New S2; if it breaches that, then we’re back in a consolidation.

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This is the update of my July 10th post last week, where I pointed out the significance of the merged Old S3 and New R2 curves at 1099.  In the first chart here, weekly bars, we see that last week price came right up to those curves and turned down, reinforcing the fact that we’re still in a downtrend on this timeframe.

The second chart here, daily bars, shows how nicely the resistance at the 1099 level took place, made even clearer by the nature of the candlesticks.  On this short term timeframe, I’d say we’re in a consolidation between those two red marked levels.

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This is an update to the weekly bars chart of my July 4th post.

As I noted last week, price supported at Old R4.  This past week, price remained above Old R4, but the entire week was, as some chartists say, an “inside bar”, meaning the range of the price bar of this most recent week was entirely within the range of the immediately preceding week, indicating essentially no motion up or down.  So, the downtrend that was in effect still is.

Notice that this week the two curves S3 and New R2 are merging together, currently at the price level 1099.  This emphasizes their importance.  So, a break above them would indicated that this downtrend will have become a consolidation; whereas a turn down from that level would reinforce the strength of this downtrend.

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This is the update to my two posts of May 31st.

The first chart here is the long term, monthly bars chart, updated through July 2nd.  The June price candle supported at S2, but the first two days of July are showing a definitive break below S2, which indicates that we’re in a new downtrend on this timeframe.

The second chart here is the intermediate term, weekly bars chart, also updated through July 2nd.  This strong downtrend, which started in early May, has now spawned R2, the second resistance curve in its hierarchy.  Last week’s action was strongly down, but how it acted at the end of the week as it encountered Old R3 and Old R4 is worth noting.  Although it broke below Old R3, it then stopped – supported – at old R4, and popped up to close the week at Old R3.  So, this could be the start of an upward correction within this overall downtrend.  If such an up move develops but remains below the new R2, then the overall trend is still down.

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