In the first chart here, daily bars updated through last Friday, Dec. 10, clearly the S&P 500 has robustly broken out above the cluster of resistance levels we’ve been watching these last few weeks.  Thus, at least the short term outlook is for continued uptrending.

I’m now concerned about the long and very long term outlook.  See the second chart here, the quarterly bars chart from 1950.  Price is now up against those two primary red resistance curves, whose levels I have marked on the daily bars chart.  Also notice that for the last dozen years, both the RSI and the MACD are showing strong negative divergences from price, suggesting imminent weakness on this timescale.  It could be that price will continue up through these R levels and then exhibit weakness in a few quarters or years from now.  Or, price could turn down from the R levels.  So, we should watch price behavior as price encounters these R levels on the short term chart.  Indeed, this Monday morning, price is getting ever closer to the lower R level, having hit 1244.5 so far this morning, where the lower R level is at 1250.9.

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