Last week, in reference to the intermediate term chart (weekly bars), I said, “If price goes on to break and close below S3, that would be the signal of the start of a new downtrend.”  As you can see from the update, the first chart here, price most certainly did break and close below S3, so we’re definitely in a downtrend on this timeframe.  Price went on down to S2, and seems to have found support there, at least for the moment.  However, even if price bounces a bit from here, it’s still in a downtrend unless and until it breaks above R1, the new resistance curve.

I didn’t update the short term chart (daily bars) last week, so  here it is, the second chart.  Certainly, this is a downtrend, with a strong bounce up on the last two days.  It’s interesting to note what price did on Friday.  It came up, but hit the S4 calibrated curve and retreated down to the day’s close.  That curve, S4 calibrated, is a very important and strong curve since it successfully supported price on four different occasions during January.  This past week, price blew straight on down through that curve, which means the price move is very strong.  Now, that curve is acting as a resistance curve, and on Friday is held firm against rising price.  So, this downtrend is still very much alive, and will remain so even if price breaks above S4 calibrated, as long as it hold below the new red resistance curve.

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