by David G. Hawkins

A lot has happened since my last post, a month ago.  This time let’s begin with the longest term chart and work our way down to shortest.

Long Term, Monthly Bars Chart

The first chart here is the long term monthly bars chart.  Please compare this with the similar chart in my last month’s post.  We see that the currently running TopFinder, TF4, is now about 82% done, with its projected end at the dashed vertical line, so it looks like we have only a month or so to go to its end.  Things can and often do get a bit volatile around the late stage of a TF.  For instance, see how TF2 ended.  They don’t all end as perfectly as BF and TF3 did.  So at this point, on this timescale, almost anything could happen in the next month or so.  After this TF ends, we’ll have to watch to see what comes next, as the ending of a TF does not in and of its self predict the next move.

Intermediate Term, Weekly Bars Chart

The second chart here is the weekly bars chart, which you should compare to the one last month.  June has seen a sharp price pullback, with a dramatic halt to the decline, in those two doji bars.  The thick green curve is S1 cal, the curve that is calibrated to the pullback of last November, marked by the green arrow.  As I’ve said before, calibrated curves are very significant, and we see here that this month’s price decline halted exactly at this curve, and price has bounced sharply up from there.  This action is consistent with this being the end of the decline that started in early May.  If price goes on to break above R1, that will confirm this view, and would likely lead to price going on significantly above May’s high.  But if price turns down from R1, we’re not out of the woods yet, and may see a retest and even breaking of S1 cal.

Short Term, Daily Bars Chart

The last chart here is the short term daily bars chart, which you should compare to the one shown in my last month’s post.  The green and red horizontal line segments are at the levels of the weekly S1 cal and R1 curves respectively.  Notice how “nicely behaved” price has been on this chart w.r.t. R1, turning down every time it has hit R1.  Over the last four days, price has been in a very strong up move, but today it closed right at R1 for the third time since R1 began.  The next day or two will be very interesting.  Will price again turn down from R1?  If so, then the down trend that R1 is tracking will still be intact.  If not, if price breaks above R1, then the next important place to watch is what it does upon reaching the Weekly R1 level, as discussed above.

Tweet This Post