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This is the update to my July 19th post.

On the short term, the daily bars chart updated here, we see that yesterday price definitively broke and closed above the weekly R2 resistance.  With this break, it has broken out of the consolidation between the lower two weekly R curve levels.  We can now identify the action since the beginning of July as an uptrend since it has a higher low and will have a higher high, and since we see that price did not break below the New S1 in the hierarchy of Midas support curves that’s tracking this new uptrend.

In the coming weeks, we should watch for how it behaves as it encounters R2 and R1 at 1113 and 1118.5 respectively, or the weekly R2 at 1142.  A turn down from one of them would not negate the new uptrend, rather, it would just establish the higher high.  The real test will come when the pullback gets down to the New S2; if it breaches that, then we’re back in a consolidation.

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This is the update of my July 10th post last week, where I pointed out the significance of the merged Old S3 and New R2 curves at 1099.  In the first chart here, weekly bars, we see that last week price came right up to those curves and turned down, reinforcing the fact that we’re still in a downtrend on this timeframe.

The second chart here, daily bars, shows how nicely the resistance at the 1099 level took place, made even clearer by the nature of the candlesticks.  On this short term timeframe, I’d say we’re in a consolidation between those two red marked levels.

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This is an update to the weekly bars chart of my July 4th post.

As I noted last week, price supported at Old R4.  This past week, price remained above Old R4, but the entire week was, as some chartists say, an “inside bar”, meaning the range of the price bar of this most recent week was entirely within the range of the immediately preceding week, indicating essentially no motion up or down.  So, the downtrend that was in effect still is.

Notice that this week the two curves S3 and New R2 are merging together, currently at the price level 1099.  This emphasizes their importance.  So, a break above them would indicated that this downtrend will have become a consolidation; whereas a turn down from that level would reinforce the strength of this downtrend.

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This is the update to my two posts of May 31st.

The first chart here is the long term, monthly bars chart, updated through July 2nd.  The June price candle supported at S2, but the first two days of July are showing a definitive break below S2, which indicates that we’re in a new downtrend on this timeframe.

The second chart here is the intermediate term, weekly bars chart, also updated through July 2nd.  This strong downtrend, which started in early May, has now spawned R2, the second resistance curve in its hierarchy.  Last week’s action was strongly down, but how it acted at the end of the week as it encountered Old R3 and Old R4 is worth noting.  Although it broke below Old R3, it then stopped – supported – at old R4, and popped up to close the week at Old R3.  So, this could be the start of an upward correction within this overall downtrend.  If such an up move develops but remains below the new R2, then the overall trend is still down.

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This is the update to my June 12th post.

The latest uptrend started on June 8th, went up to R2 and turned down, and two days ago, it broke below the new S1.  This means that uptrend is definitely over.  We see, in the upper pane of this chart, that the MFI (the volume weighted RSI) didn’t even get into overbought territory before turning down.  I think this means that for now, we’re in a sideways consolidation.  A new trend wouldn’t be definitively indicated unless and until price breaks out of the range established by the June 8th and June 21st trading.

On the intermediate term (weekly bars chart) and long term (monthly bars chart), we’re still in new downtrends, with nothing much changed on those charts since I last updated them.

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This is an update of my June 1st post.

This past week, price came down to the support at the low of May 25th and rebounded, and is starting to break resistances.  This is the Midas definition of being in a new uptrend.

Also, notice in the upper pane that the Money Flow Index (the volume weighted RSI) has formed a bullish divergence with price, and has broken its downtrend line and then supported on the other side of that line.  This is bullish.

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The markets this past week have continued in the trends as I identified them in my posts of May 31st and June 2nd.  So here, I’m updating my post of May 2nd; you should see that post and it precedents for definitions of the indicators I’m displaying on this chart.

This chart is a continuation of the chart I showed on May 2nd, the only difference being that, in the upper pane, it’s 33-day moving averages instead of 22-day.  This somewhat longer averaging period smooths out a lot of random volatility without significantly increasing the lag of these indicators.

We see that distribution really got underway last November, and has continued since then.  When distribution accompanies a rising market, that’s a leading indicator of a market reversal.  However, it gives us no indication of timing.  It simply told us that the “smart money” was distributing out of the stock as the uptrend went into its final stages.

The market has been in a clear, strong downtrend (short term, daily bars) since late April, and along with it, distribution has been increasing in intensity, meaning that it’s now in sync with the trend.

When this downtrend eventually gets to its later stages, a leading indicator of its end will be the appearance of accumulation (green above red, MVPT diverging upwards from price), or, at least, the disappearance of distribution.  But there’s no hint of that now, meaning we’re in the strongest part of the downtrned.  So, hold onto your hats and enjoy the ride down!

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This is the update of my May 17th post.

In the short term, daily bars chart, the S&P 500 is still in a downtrend since it has been breaking supports while holding resistances, which is the Midas definition of a downtrend.

It is possible, though, that this downtrend may have bottomed last Tuesday, the day of that classic Hammer candle which often marks a bottom.  Furthermore, that day price bounced up off a relatively minor calibrated support curve.  For another indication, look at the top pane of this chart, the Money Flow Index, which is really the volume weighted RSI.  It is well known that trendline analysis done on the RSI itself can often be a leading indicator, and here we see that its down trendline (blue) has been definitively broken to the upside.

We won’t know for sure if this downtrend has ended unless and until price breaks above R3.

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This is the update of my May 23rd post of the weekly bars chart.

Last week I said that the perforation of the S2 curve was minor enough to say that support was still holding.  However, this past week’s action clearly is a breakdown of that support.  So, price is breaking supports while holding resistance, which is the Midas definition of a downtrend.

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This is the update to my April 24th post.

A lot has happened since the last update of this long term, monthly bars chart.  Last month, price hit both the 61.8% fib retracement level and the highest resistance curve, and also the level of the R1 from the quarterly bars chart (not shown).  And this month, May, price strongly retreated. breaking through S3, the uppermost green curve, which means the old uptrend has ended.  Also, the last three bars on this chart are a Shooting Star candle pattern, indicating the end of the uptrend.

Also, it’s interesting to note the TopFinder curve shown in purple here.  This one is fit to the bar at the purple arrow.  This TofFinder ended at the end of March, just before the top bar here.  We had shown this TopFinder curve several months ago, then later switched to following a longer term one (not shown here) fitted to the April price bar, and that one has not ended.  But, this earlier one has ended, making a good call of the top.

What happens from here?    It’s hard to say with only one bar down from the top.  Price did find support at S2, the second green curve, but the size of the down move this month of May is so large that it’s probably the beginning of a new downtrend.  We can’t say that for sure, though, until another couple of months.

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